| Historical and Recent Past Period Drought Data is | | | | mountain snows that pile up each winter, in the |
| very valuable to predicting future trends and | | | | un-seasonal winter rainfalls that drench the |
| cycles. By doing this we can prepare for crisis by | | | | mountains instead of snow, and in the speed of |
| building adequate water resources and monitoring | | | | the snowmelt during spring. Total precipitation |
| our fresh water supplies. It is important to | | | | over California hasn't changed significantly on |
| understand all the regional dynamics in order to | | | | average over the years, but seasonal variations |
| make good non-linear decisions to insure our | | | | between rain and snow show that a significant |
| civilization has what it needs. This data is from | | | | warming trend is under way. But the population |
| 2002.If you think the US is having problems look | | | | increase has, for instance look at the LA suburbs, |
| at Mexico although they are getting some good | | | | Sacramento, Central Valley of Silicon Valley |
| and needed rain this week in the interior of the | | | | Refugees, San Diego and San Gabriel Valley, lots |
| country, it has been quite a problem. This | | | | of lawns to water and mow. Even in the desert |
| Hurricane season has been lighter than anytime in | | | | cities more homes, golf courses and lawns, with |
| the last 100 years and is not delivering the rain it | | | | the increasing middle class, which is not paying |
| could. As the El Nino cuts of the amount of space | | | | attention to where stuff like water really comes |
| that the hurricanes can operate in, it may create | | | | from. The annual surveys of mountain snow |
| a few larger systems where tropical depressions | | | | depths and water levels of California's major |
| combine. The earth's supply of freshwater for | | | | rivers show that before the 1960s runoff in the |
| use by humans and natural ecosystems seems to | | | | late spring and early summer amounted to a good |
| be shrinking by the year. One-third of the world's | | | | 40 percent of the total runoff each year.Since |
| population is living in "water stressed" regions in | | | | the mid-1970s in LA, San Diego, Sacramento and |
| the World. As human population continues to | | | | the Bay Area, runoff during the late spring and |
| grow, so does the demand for more water. It is | | | | early summer has dropped to barely 30 percent |
| estimated that by the year 2025 nearly one-half | | | | of the annual total, he said. Tracking California's |
| of the population will be living in "water stressed" | | | | changing climate record for many years. We are |
| regions or countries.The NASA Satellite which | | | | finding data that adds to powerful evidence that |
| sends information on river basins around the | | | | the warming trend is real. However there maybe |
| world using sophisticated computer models and | | | | other explanations as well. Some which may be |
| geographical information systems is locating the | | | | unbelievable. The problem of managing the state's |
| areas that are most stressed. Among the most | | | | water resources more rationally in view of the |
| stressed are China's Yellow River basin, Africa's | | | | changing climate is urgent now. We need detailed |
| Zambeze River basin, the Syr Darya and Amu | | | | studies to decide what to do. Studies are a lot |
| Darya River basins leading to Russia's Aral Sea | | | | cheaper than floods. However I doubt anyone can |
| and the Colorado River basin. These are amongst | | | | disagree with the thought of weather control |
| the first serious problems. This research is also | | | | research to solve the water problem for people. |
| being used by the World Water Commission; a | | | | Officials of the California Department of Water |
| government and privately funded organization; | | | | Resources are starting to look at the effects of |
| goal to seek global solutions to water problems. | | | | climate change as they develop the 2003 |
| They of course are using this data to change | | | | California Water Plan that state law requires the |
| policy and over exaggerate much of the | | | | department to produce every five years. As I |
| problems, however at the current rates we will | | | | traveled last month from Reno NV to CA |
| see significant and unfixable problems in these | | | | Sacramento are I looked at the Sierra summit |
| regions without control of the actual weather. We | | | | and there's no snow pack at all up there, while |
| must look towards using the technology we have | | | | the major reservoirs downstream are full, places |
| to control the weather and make it rain every | | | | like Folsom Lake, the warming trend problem is |
| Monday and Thursday night. Water managers are | | | | just beginning, but it's certainly focusing the water |
| recognizing that our nations water supply must be | | | | authorities attention.The warming trend poses at |
| treated cautiously. With a growing population, | | | | least three increasing dangers: -- Severe lowland |
| erratic dry spells, and widespread pollution of our | | | | flooding as rains in the winter replace mountain |
| aquatic environment, water consumption must be | | | | snowfalls; -- Rising sea levels that reach into the |
| watched. The big problem is that people still see | | | | Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and threaten |
| water as basically free and totally unlimited, which | | | | century-old levees that must protect the rich |
| if you look at the Earth it would appear that way | | | | croplands; -- The intrusion of salt into Delta |
| judging by the size of the oceans.Things are being | | | | waterways that disturbs both fisheries and the |
| done to reserve our supply, in the US we | | | | natural delta ecology on which farmlands depend. |
| certainly take for granted the fresh water supply. | | | | The Department of Water Resources hedges |
| Some communities are using surplus water and | | | | against these changes by developing a two-year |
| gray water to replenish underground reservoirs | | | | state water plan. I have read this and find it full of |
| like in Tucson AZ, where water naturally | | | | farm subsidies and bad data and guess by |
| accumulates but is at lower than normal levels. | | | | experts similar to the crisis management team |
| Scientists are looking at new technologies to | | | | brought in for Y2K, which never happened, |
| maximize such stores. Other ideas range from | | | | although these are real, right now issues we need |
| setting up commercial markets for water rights | | | | to look at the past for answers more than trying |
| to forming huge snow piles. Although these ideas | | | | to predict the new future trends. The last such |
| are great locally, and it provides local awareness it | | | | document in 1998 included forecasts for the |
| will do little good. And there are a couple of | | | | state's water supply and demand over the |
| Canadian companies that use small ships to go | | | | coming 20 years, and provided recommendations |
| and capture floating icebergs for fresh water. | | | | for dam building, flood control, water management |
| California water planners face a problem they | | | | and conservation measures. Now, the department |
| never thought they'd encounter: global warming is | | | | of water planning is gearing up to draft the plan |
| hitting the High Sierra snow pack. And just how | | | | for 2003. The City of Los Angeles water planning |
| the planners cope with it could affect every | | | | dept and other and other experts will offer the |
| city-dweller, every farmer and every water-using | | | | department's 60-member advisory committee the |
| industry in the state for years to come and | | | | latest evidence that the warming problem could |
| every car wash. Scientists are in broad | | | | grow steadily worse.The Water Department has |
| agreement that the world's climate is steadily | | | | a 60-member advisory committee made up of |
| warming and even President Bush and his staff | | | | "stakeholders" -- the people most affected by |
| have conceded that we should be looking at | | | | water policies like agricultural water districts, urban |
| these issues with more scrutiny-- whether due to | | | | water departments, food processing industries |
| "greenhouse gas" emissions from industry and | | | | and public utilities. All provide input for the state's |
| automobilesor to natural variability. is evidence that | | | | water planners. The committee meets every two |
| it is already altering the annual ebb and flow of | | | | months or so for the next two years until the |
| the California state's water supplies, of course | | | | final plan is released. future will be all about |
| realizing that liars figure and figures lie. It's a | | | | sustainability and we must watch that this term is |
| matter of "more rain, less snow," and this is El | | | | not misused in the future for political gain or |
| Nino which will fill up CA reservoirs when they do | | | | Liberal Political gain, which will upset the balance. |
| not need the water and the snow pack that | | | | Wash guys realize the need to understand the |
| comes and fills things up in the Spring will not | | | | water supply and where and why it is needed. |
| come, then La Nina comes and we have another | | | | We have been through droughts in the past and |
| drought in CA, it is not going to help us. This | | | | will in the future. Some people ask where did the |
| happened in 1984 too. California's water supply | | | | Indians go who inhabited they villages and cities |
| largely depends on the winter snow pack in the | | | | and temple and structures of the past? I believe |
| high mountains that must feed the state's | | | | they went in search of greener pastures and |
| lowlands the rest of the year. A major change is | | | | water. The problem of tomorrow is distribution |
| already evident in the decreasing depths of the | | | | flow. |